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"data/raw/global-ecb-anchors-20260917/manifest.json", "snapshot_manifest_sha256": "569c81d4afeff930a8db074f460f8f015ce085558ede500feeb8d7ba9a1cf551", "raw_file_bundled": false } ], "limitations": "Early questions approximatelytenyears; later longrunaftershocksdissipate, not exact interval. HeadlineHICP versus GermanHICPextobacco bonds.", "redistribution": "Original provider documents are not bundled. Existing copyright and provider terms remain applicable; the author does not relicense third-party material." }, { "id": "rba_j1", "provider": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "role": "Australian survey anchors", "links": [ "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/" ], "selection": "`JSVNNIREMN` / `JSVNNIREMED`: neutral-rate mean/median. `JSVIEXPMN` / `JSVIEXPMED`: next-5-10-year inflation mean/median.", "conversion": "Policy%*100; inflation10000log1p(%/100).", "vintage": "Retrieved 17 September 2026; snapshot update 28 August. Use rounds through May. Reference-month ends proxy historical release dates.", "artifacts": [ { "filename": "rba_j1_star_variables.csv", "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/j1-star-variables.csv", "sha256": "5bc6dcff4ea0ce2cf341012f50d6fc6f5b27b6d7b3b4033fe1aa197c336c7cef", "bytes": 10073, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T15:31:39.479585+00:00", "retrieval_metadata_status": "recorded", "byte_capture_verified_at": null, "http_last_modified": "Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:15:05 GMT", "snapshot_manifest": "data/raw/au-expectations-20260917/acquisition_manifest.json", "snapshot_manifest_sha256": "bab0011e9d0b10e8bb70a88d85d153319b12080de59da5a8f66d4a7a25d9c913", "raw_file_bundled": false } ], "limitations": "Reference-month ends proxy historical release dates; update timestamp is not each round release date.", "redistribution": "Original provider documents are not bundled. Existing copyright and provider terms remain applicable; the author does not relicense third-party material." }, { "id": "hlw_neutral", "provider": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York", "role": "Historical macro expected-real proxy", "links": [ "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/rstar" ], "selection": "Real-time workbook, sheet `2026Q1`: US r-star (K), euro-area r-star (M); one-sided 2023 COVID-adjusted model. Real annual percentages.", "conversion": "Native realpercent*100bp; quarterend backward carry<=270days.", "vintage": "Retrieved 17 September 2026. Reference vintage scheduled 1 June 2026. Later revised history is a sensitivity.", "artifacts": [ { "filename": "hlw_current.xlsx", "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/economists/williams/data/Holston_Laubach_Williams_current_estimates.xlsx", "sha256": "120f1587a5501d9623f00fb65e492df714b303559806e60f728bc3e575b5aa46", "bytes": 178850, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T13:21:38.264535+00:00", "retrieval_metadata_status": "recorded", "byte_capture_verified_at": null, "http_last_modified": null, "snapshot_manifest": "data/raw/capital-drivers-20260917/manifest.json", "snapshot_manifest_sha256": "7cbc17e85359743d43754bd019bfecc618ae7a893f235fa5c96ba30fa96908b9", "raw_file_bundled": false }, { "filename": "hlw_real_time.xlsx", "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/economists/williams/data/Holston_Laubach_Williams_real_time_estimates.xlsx", "sha256": "189dd5b5198047754cd6766ef59cb6f190b210d0e7008efeb1ee566fad1cb4b9", "bytes": 1812794, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T13:21:38.564571+00:00", "retrieval_metadata_status": "recorded", "byte_capture_verified_at": null, "http_last_modified": null, "snapshot_manifest": "data/raw/capital-drivers-20260917/manifest.json", "snapshot_manifest_sha256": "7cbc17e85359743d43754bd019bfecc618ae7a893f235fa5c96ba30fa96908b9", "raw_file_bundled": false } ], "limitations": "Neutral-to-years5–10 expectedreturn mapping conditional; historical states re-estimated in one2026vintage, not realtime information sets.", "redistribution": "Original provider documents are not bundled. Existing copyright and provider terms remain applicable; the author does not relicense third-party material." }, { "id": "rba_macro_neutral", "provider": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "role": "Historical Australian macro expected-real proxy", "links": [ "https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-ag-2026-03-26.html" ], "selection": "Data sheet, Graph 3, columns H/I/J: three identically labelled Semi structural nominal-neutral variants. Exact columns used; unique variant names unavailable.", "conversion": "Mean three nominal modelpercent*100 minus assumed250bp inflationtarget; eachmodel and logtarget alternatives.", "vintage": "Published 26 March 2026; retrieved 17 September, 15:50 UTC. Retrospective quarters through December 2025.", "artifacts": [ { "filename": "rba_20260326_neutral_graph_data.xlsx", "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/xls/sp-ag-2026-03-26-graph-data.xlsx", "sha256": "e21295bc66d9170a8cdedaa32285d5c4fe9f1d93e0b73a7cfef5c1e3b80f6309", "bytes": 514266, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T15:50:41.569249+00:00", "retrieval_metadata_status": "recorded", "byte_capture_verified_at": null, "http_last_modified": null, "snapshot_manifest": "data/raw/au-expectations-20260917/acquisition_manifest.json", "snapshot_manifest_sha256": "bab0011e9d0b10e8bb70a88d85d153319b12080de59da5a8f66d4a7a25d9c913", "raw_file_bundled": false } ], "limitations": "Source labels three variants identically; unique variant names/parameter mapping are not published in captured workbook. H/I/J identifiers are exact. RBA does not verify exact additive2.5deflation; declared here.", "redistribution": "Original provider documents are not bundled. Existing copyright and provider terms remain applicable; the author does not relicense third-party material." }, { "id": "fred_t5yifr", "provider": "FRED / Federal Reserve", "role": "Upstream CPIH policy-control input only", "links": [ "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR" ], "selection": "Upstream CPIH policy control alongside T5YIE/T10YIE. Public HTML date/value extract; converted with log(1+rate). Not the downstream US real curve.", "conversion": "10000log1p(percent/100), strictly earlier USdate for London; outside current downstream calculation.", "vintage": "Retrieved 10 September 2026, 10:38:51 UTC. Direct CSV attempts failed; captured-table provenance explicit.", "artifacts": [ { "filename": "fred_T5YIFR_T5YIE_T10YIE.csv", "sha256": "e32b5406b4ac75ecde02f3dfcce517021d39a6ab6f82900408c3b1053cb996b2", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/T5YIFR", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10 10:38:51 UTC", "capture_kind": "Official FRED data tables retrieved by web tool; date/value rows programmatically extracted from overlapping page sections, deduplicated with equality validation, and combined by observation date. Numeric strings and missing-value dots retained.", "raw_file_bundled": false } ], "limitations": "Not substituted for exactFedzero-node realforward. Full CPIH policy conversion is a separate replication exercise.", "redistribution": "Original provider documents are not bundled. Existing copyright and provider terms remain applicable; the author does not relicense third-party material." } ], "unknown_metadata": [ "AU historical F16 retrieval timestamps not retained; verification times are not retrieval times.", "AU TI-code toISIN crosswalk unavailable in frozen inputs.", "RBA three semi-structural variant names/parameters not mapped individually beyond exactH/I/Jcolumns.", "Many historical forecast publication dates or originalvintage availability unknown.", "Source redistribution licences not uniformly cleared; original source documents not bundled." ], "author_material_licence": { "name": "CC BY 4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "copyright_holder": "Russ Oxley", "scope": "Original author text, charts and research outputs in this publication; third-party rights excluded" } }