{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "publication_date": "2026-09-18",
  "research_checkpoint": "2026-09-17",
  "market_cutoff": "2026-07-31",
  "no_new_estimation": true,
  "source_outputs_modified": false,
  "style": "Unified light publication style; HTML supplies chart-book titles and captions",
  "plotting_code": "publish/modern-tontines-macro/charts/build_charts.py",
  "plotting_code_sha256": "ca29d8ee3967b34e5ea5f497b9bddcbabea9601d37f692f511ca79ec8f4adf1f",
  "input_files": {
    "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_three_market_reference_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "afe97f013de23f31b31068b43f8e76486461b9b23d13a8f7ba25750fe036365d",
      "manifest": "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "5cfd4f4a9733dbdfb9ce91ffc30258641776f41204cbd086aab4df9a5cd680d0"
    },
    "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_three_market_reference_daily.csv": {
      "sha256": "fddcf7e0b11681c289abd32aff9ca2a95ae7cfff0c0e24d7e2a0b50103040808",
      "manifest": "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "5cfd4f4a9733dbdfb9ce91ffc30258641776f41204cbd086aab4df9a5cd680d0"
    },
    "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/uk_inflation_sensitivities_quarterly.csv": {
      "sha256": "aa3a5dcb8582b639586c41bb1899e087e665c4b7fad9a71b627676996e76c992",
      "manifest": "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "5cfd4f4a9733dbdfb9ce91ffc30258641776f41204cbd086aab4df9a5cd680d0"
    },
    "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_US_AU_reference_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "d034e578c9b1be43b3ff88ec76dfa79f2402c69b4b3aff7877ca0aaefb2f1e56",
      "manifest": "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "5cfd4f4a9733dbdfb9ce91ffc30258641776f41204cbd086aab4df9a5cd680d0"
    },
    "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/input_pi_uk_bp.csv": {
      "sha256": "71c57f10b65bf45c6fd99f0f501cf4556e7399127d84ad00011dfbbc9fd4f71a",
      "manifest": "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "6f56007ee3181c21964255204977cea878d26a85e181a2e34354fce705492fdb"
    },
    "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/inflation_expectation_paths.csv": {
      "sha256": "c139c8bdc481868dc5e3aaee4a0dc78de8ec26837218e5896c7b319ec5524d52",
      "manifest": "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "5cfd4f4a9733dbdfb9ce91ffc30258641776f41204cbd086aab4df9a5cd680d0"
    },
    "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_three_market_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "6da95b878df4c51b2a74606ca5a85b1670b3ece45b7590ae774c56bde3883050",
      "manifest": "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "37e9bff2f587936f6fceb172621b7da4098ba7fa13f92754d9a01349c2940e26"
    },
    "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "47c99293862830ad4396e61c8eb540a763321bbb3fb9e87d85d95128926c3a8b",
      "manifest": "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "37e9bff2f587936f6fceb172621b7da4098ba7fa13f92754d9a01349c2940e26"
    },
    "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/macro_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "481cf16d0a0d143f980e9ee997f8b707d93e458cc1cccebabe4038c40a2331aa",
      "manifest": "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "37e9bff2f587936f6fceb172621b7da4098ba7fa13f92754d9a01349c2940e26"
    },
    "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_membership_comparison.csv": {
      "sha256": "a350c2f31c193558d09054261fd709026ca57311116e18f3e63f161edab060b3",
      "manifest": "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "37e9bff2f587936f6fceb172621b7da4098ba7fa13f92754d9a01349c2940e26"
    },
    "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/five_components_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "9910f94a61ca48fee0fc27ebd3b314999e686dda985e7c887a231fc86cb325d8",
      "manifest": "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "6f56007ee3181c21964255204977cea878d26a85e181a2e34354fce705492fdb"
    },
    "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/uk_context_monthly.csv": {
      "sha256": "fdcae563772e1d401591cb1326dcf7f41569b64b4d4b3e9820eae1d36da527ad",
      "manifest": "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/run_manifest.json",
      "manifest_sha256": "6f56007ee3181c21964255204977cea878d26a85e181a2e34354fce705492fdb"
    }
  },
  "charts": [
    {
      "number": 1,
      "id": "chart1",
      "png": "01_five_components_three_markets.png",
      "svg": "01_five_components_three_markets.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1224,
      "alt": "Monthly UK nominal 5y5y and five components from March 2012 to July 2026, using a fixed US, German and Australian macro benchmark. Unsupported months remain blank.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_three_market_reference_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2012-03-30",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 159,
        "missing_months": [
          "2013-04",
          "2013-05",
          "2013-06",
          "2013-07",
          "2013-08",
          "2013-09",
          "2013-10",
          "2013-11",
          "2013-12",
          "2014-01",
          "2014-02",
          "2014-03",
          "2014-12",
          "2020-06"
        ],
        "columns": [
          "expected_real_bp",
          "expected_inflation_bp",
          "global_real_premium_bp",
          "local_real_premium_bp",
          "uk_inflation_premium_bp",
          "nominal_bp"
        ],
        "operation": "Source bp / 100; signed monthly stacks; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "fc81c2b6dd5a61f30e224b90cff7d06f77e79f19d3eddff6fddbed8713d40ac8",
      "svg_sha256": "017444ac713bb154afc74c414a9efd9309a7af88e5cda1c12dd87b5234a4f4ce",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 2,
      "id": "chart2",
      "png": "02_contributions_since_2019.png",
      "svg": "02_contributions_since_2019.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1170,
      "alt": "Contributions to the 453.9 basis point rise: global real compensation 282.6, expected real rate 125.4, inflation compensation 32.6, UK-relative real compensation 12.8 and expected inflation 0.5.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_three_market_reference_daily.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "start": "2019-12-30",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "changes_bp": {
          "expected_real_bp": 125.38672021410001,
          "expected_inflation_bp": 0.4760378009999897,
          "global_real_premium_bp": 282.6333181813,
          "local_real_premium_bp": 12.766023160099998,
          "uk_inflation_premium_bp": 32.62205619939999
        },
        "total_change_bp": 453.88415555499995
      },
      "png_sha256": "5e2e54de810e304e9547aae665ff69c69bf01d72fb3f3eba2936f0b31cba1a3b",
      "svg_sha256": "3ddef51022b78724fa6ba0f8b127297734840620d1319e35ee10879be5720537",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 3,
      "id": "chart3",
      "png": "03_inflation_compensation_history.png",
      "svg": "03_inflation_compensation_history.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1188,
      "alt": "Quarterly UK inflation compensation since 2005, with HMT expectation and market-conversion ranges and a separate MPS comparison from 2023. The recent path falls in 2025 and partly rebounds in 2026.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/uk_inflation_sensitivities_quarterly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "operation": "Accepted complete-quarter means; ranges within each quarter; source bp / 100",
        "first_quarter": "2005Q2",
        "last_quarter": "2026Q2"
      },
      "png_sha256": "78099a5aacb2089f5eea0b9cfd1f752a04c59491515d16b875db9dda4a58e343",
      "svg_sha256": "b1466a0d9a5d781a8f8ddbd221a770f9d036e64dc78b8c6cba8d221f3b713285",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 4,
      "id": "chart4",
      "png": "04_five_components_long_history.png",
      "svg": "04_five_components_long_history.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1224,
      "alt": "Monthly UK five-component history from August 2005 to July 2026 using a fixed US and Australian macro benchmark, with visible gaps where the common market inputs lack support.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_US_AU_reference_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2005-08-31",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 239,
        "missing_months": [
          "2009-08",
          "2009-09",
          "2009-10",
          "2009-11",
          "2009-12",
          "2010-01",
          "2010-02",
          "2010-03",
          "2010-04",
          "2010-05",
          "2010-06",
          "2010-07",
          "2020-06"
        ],
        "columns": [
          "expected_real_bp",
          "expected_inflation_bp",
          "global_real_premium_bp",
          "local_real_premium_bp",
          "uk_inflation_premium_bp",
          "nominal_bp"
        ],
        "operation": "Source bp / 100; signed monthly stacks; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "cb0198797ce37b064e0b875a03df78b1a95b56f7fc32c38bf65d819f903400d1",
      "svg_sha256": "1987a6ff71ee6dbfeb589ea0d9920af35d6c7ffc63aefd300b9bbfd19d4c878b",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 5,
      "id": "inflation-expectations",
      "png": "05_inflation_expectation_diagnostic.png",
      "svg": "05_inflation_expectation_diagnostic.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1170,
      "alt": "HMT terminal-year CPI forecasts and three saved expectation paths on a 1.8 to 2.6 per cent scale. The reference is much smoother than the source forecasts and the responsive alternatives.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/input_pi_uk_bp.csv",
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/inflation_expectation_paths.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "operation": "Source log basis points / 100; raw observation dates and existing daily fitted paths",
        "ylim": [
          1.8,
          2.6
        ],
        "checkpoint": "final inflation sensitivity"
      },
      "png_sha256": "19a69f1913a09d628bd08795755c78d480e3950f4fc02db0de6376af539c4b57",
      "svg_sha256": "c262e852be33e1abaec08fb6d6534a5be1b8512f96bd6863c8f16839937ec549",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 6,
      "id": "inflation-sensitivity",
      "png": "06_inflation_sensitivity_differences.png",
      "svg": "06_inflation_sensitivity_differences.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1350,
      "alt": "Ranges of inflation-compensation differences from the same-quarter HMT reference. The upper panel varies HMT expectations and market conversion; the lower panel compares MPS tail assumptions from 2023.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/uk_inflation_sensitivities_quarterly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "operation": "Subtract each quarter's hmt_baseline/policy_adjusted compensation before plotting min/max; no estimator changes",
        "units": "basis points"
      },
      "png_sha256": "8532399734e9f07c1351264d765dbe5332bc9a5e69af334857ac53d43419894c",
      "svg_sha256": "b8a6206b164d33f3ef35b1fecac74051e9b59036f9f1e64a15af94aa36098909",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 7,
      "id": "recent-global",
      "png": "07_recent_survey_decomposition.png",
      "svg": "07_recent_survey_decomposition.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1224,
      "alt": "Five-component UK nominal 5y5y levels from February 2024 to July 2026 using independent survey anchors for the fixed US, German and Australian benchmark.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_three_market_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2024-02-29",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 30,
        "missing_months": [],
        "columns": [
          "expected_real_bp",
          "expected_inflation_bp",
          "global_real_premium_bp",
          "local_real_premium_bp",
          "uk_inflation_premium_bp",
          "nominal_bp"
        ],
        "operation": "Source bp / 100; signed monthly stacks; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "7d6d83c8f5bc18401978a7e0b1b5ed98ef83fa981e11ae4d4d0ee62c6f6212e5",
      "svg_sha256": "7f3d9789f67ecec2e6d2e47c24be3e30948263adf89efe41fdb0f9a40d5c923d",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 8,
      "id": "foreign-survey",
      "png": "08_foreign_survey_components.png",
      "svg": "08_foreign_survey_components.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1296,
      "alt": "Foreign real compensation and expected real rates in separate panels, for the US, Germany, Australia and their equal-weight benchmark, February 2024 to July 2026.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2024-02-29",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 30,
        "missing_months": [],
        "operation": "Saved monthly country/benchmark components divided by 100; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "f44ac30e3e6defe41676eb0a9bb5217797a9a0613f379780a9c9e2337b852623",
      "svg_sha256": "594a220c89a56e60fc98bb1c93d16e2018467fd41e19cf3b7128103cced61258",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 9,
      "id": "foreign-history",
      "png": "09_foreign_macro_history.png",
      "svg": "09_foreign_macro_history.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1296,
      "alt": "Longer histories of US, German and Australian real compensation and macro expected-real anchors, with equal-weight benchmark lines and blank unsupported months.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/macro_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2012-03-30",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 159,
        "missing_months": [
          "2013-04",
          "2013-05",
          "2013-06",
          "2013-07",
          "2013-08",
          "2013-09",
          "2013-10",
          "2013-11",
          "2013-12",
          "2014-01",
          "2014-02",
          "2014-03",
          "2014-12",
          "2020-06"
        ],
        "operation": "Saved monthly country/benchmark components divided by 100; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "f4c87bf2dd74a32b20f4c14365daa93574dc751c49664512e2dbc441f6e62e98",
      "svg_sha256": "7857271a30cf42c4eb6f25621690ff51642adf0c5b450a62d73cb337f21c1907",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 10,
      "id": "us-versus-global",
      "png": "10_benchmark_membership_comparison.png",
      "svg": "10_benchmark_membership_comparison.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1134,
      "alt": "UK-relative real compensation using the US alone and the equal-weight US, German and Australian benchmark. The two paths converge near July 2026 but differ earlier in the sample.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/global_expansion/20260917T161524487851Z/survey_membership_comparison.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2024-02-29",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 30,
        "missing_months": [],
        "operation": "Last actual common observation per month, at most 7 days before month-end; source bp / 100"
      },
      "png_sha256": "7e2698788bfa4794161c5eacd337442a8266c8ae6c19e6d808ed694e784b421f",
      "svg_sha256": "9380eeecf85c9dee8f633214b7e97b29f4fd80fef6e4692a2b110f4eba99336f",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 11,
      "id": "earlier-components",
      "png": "11_earlier_us_proxy_components.png",
      "svg": "11_earlier_us_proxy_components.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1530,
      "alt": "Six panels show the earlier US-proxy decomposition and UK nominal forward. The expected-inflation panel uses a 1.8 to 2.6 per cent scale; all values are unchanged frozen estimates.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/five_components_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2012-06-29",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 170,
        "missing_months": [],
        "operation": "Source bp / 100; six separate component lines",
        "expected_inflation_ylim": [
          1.8,
          2.6
        ]
      },
      "png_sha256": "31e9de6f4e25630a11c78a5d607f4e9e5342b349ef821d0afb4ac69b2c84139c",
      "svg_sha256": "3238990c2ed8b58aeedded39cb37c5e2cddacc5d53adebe0bb5304ef234cd7a7",
      "in_image_title": false
    },
    {
      "number": 12,
      "id": "uk-context",
      "png": "12_uk_context_since_2005.png",
      "svg": "12_uk_context_since_2005.svg",
      "width": 2250,
      "height": 1224,
      "alt": "UK nominal 5y5y since February 2005 divided into expected real rates, expected inflation, total real compensation and inflation compensation. This UK-only context has no global/local real split.",
      "inputs": [
        "results/five_component_historical/20260917T153855427269Z/uk_context_monthly.csv"
      ],
      "transforms": {
        "first_actual_date": "2005-02-28",
        "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
        "observed_months": 258,
        "missing_months": [],
        "columns": [
          "expected_real_bp",
          "expected_inflation_bp",
          "total_uk_real_compensation_bp",
          "uk_inflation_premium_bp",
          "nominal_bp"
        ],
        "operation": "Source bp / 100; signed monthly stacks; missing months left blank"
      },
      "png_sha256": "d2772ca559a619b2203e8e920ee145a731429321d85a06cb094fc4cc0946938b",
      "svg_sha256": "ac9e5e8f4737da0bdee59f84306ce3d0d99aa57fae857bb2c4330ec14a98c7a4",
      "in_image_title": false
    }
  ],
  "social_preview": {
    "number": 0,
    "id": "social-preview",
    "png": "share-card.png",
    "svg": "share-card.svg",
    "width": 1200,
    "height": 630,
    "alt": "UK nominal five-year, five-year gilt rate decomposed into expected real rates, expected inflation and three compensation components.",
    "inputs": [
      "results/inflation_trend/20260917_checkpoint/macro_three_market_reference_monthly.csv"
    ],
    "transforms": {
      "first_actual_date": "2012-03-30",
      "last_actual_date": "2026-07-31",
      "observed_months": 159,
      "missing_months": [
        "2013-04",
        "2013-05",
        "2013-06",
        "2013-07",
        "2013-08",
        "2013-09",
        "2013-10",
        "2013-11",
        "2013-12",
        "2014-01",
        "2014-02",
        "2014-03",
        "2014-12",
        "2020-06"
      ],
      "operation": "Same frozen data and signed stacks as chart 1; purpose-built 1200 by 630 canvas"
    },
    "png_sha256": "aeaa0f1ff26b783ccfb2a3dd22c0326154e6ea524b2e7c2dbc097f87b3340cd3",
    "svg_sha256": "862f2bfb3572e36a04dbc8d0bc5db0bb494bf83c2d7800a38c24dbbcb06c39c6",
    "in_image_title": true
  },
  "validation": {
    "source_hashes_verified": true,
    "canvas_text_bounds_checked": true,
    "png_integrity_checked": true,
    "compensation_display_labels": true,
    "chart_book_count": 12,
    "png_count": 13,
    "svg_count": 13
  }
}
