{ "version": "review-replication-targets-1", "created_utc": "2026-09-18T13:52:59.259540+00:00", "purpose": "Author-review engineering targets; proposed numeric tolerances are not calibrated confidence limits. No estimation code was rerun; this audit derives summaries from saved outputs.", "units": { "rate_values": "annual basis points in the published continuous-rate ledger", "one_bp_in_percent_points": 0.01, "comparison_rule": "absolute difference; no relative tolerance", "native_survey_warning": "annual arithmetic percentages and mean-log proxies are distinct statistics" }, "general_rules": [ "A matching endpoint is insufficient: verify source bytes/keys, dates, support and conventions plus the full relevant series.", "Changed data or changed method is an extension; report divergence without claiming exact replication or automatically rejecting the new result.", "Matching source-tier targets and missing model-tier targets is an unresolved discrepancy until attributed; it may be a method choice or an implementation error.", "Never treat a historical raw-survey range, a scenario envelope or a desired sign as a numeric pass band.", "The published source cutoff is2026-07-31. Later observations retained in source files are not admitted to these target series." ], "tiers": [ { "tier": "A_same_frozen_measurement_and_accounting", "status_rule": "Numerical reproduction only when bytes/selection/conventions agree and all targets and full-series/date checks agree", "tolerance_rationale": "1e-6bp comfortably exceeds saved CSV rounding (~2e-9bp) while exposing material conversion mistakes; do not substitute proposed2\u20133bp bands", "targets": [ { "quantity": "UK nominal 5y5y", "value_bp": 564.923050391, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "nominal_bp" }, { "quantity": "Gilt-implied RPI 5y5y compensation", "value_bp": 300.316638, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "../cpih_history/outputs/policy_adjusted/cpih_5y5y_daily.csv", "column": "rpi_5y5y_cc_decimal", "source_value_to_bp": "multiply annual continuous decimal by10000" }, { "quantity": "UK market inflation compensation", "value_bp": 300.316638, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\inflation_trend\\20260917_checkpoint\\inflation_endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "market_inflation_bp" }, { "quantity": "UK adjusted real-related forward", "value_bp": 264.606412391, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\inflation_trend\\20260917_checkpoint\\inflation_endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "market_real_bp" } ], "additional_exact_conditions": { "last_date": "2026-07-31", "CPIH_statistical_adjustment_bp": 0.0, "CPIH_policy_addback_bp": 0.0, "RPI_equals_CPIH_at_last_date": true, "identity_absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06 } }, { "tier": "B_same_frozen_inputs_and_full_published_method", "status_rule": "Compare same model and same parameter choices;0.01bp is a proposed numerical solver tolerance, not permission to substitute other expectation methods", "full_series_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "identity_absolute_tolerance_bp": 1e-06, "targets": [ { "quantity": "Expected UK nominal policy", "value_bp": 316.583654954, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "uk_expected_nominal_bp" }, { "quantity": "Expected UK inflation", "value_bp": 208.339724274, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "expected_inflation_bp" }, { "quantity": "Expected UK real policy", "value_bp": 108.24393068, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "expected_real_bp" }, { "quantity": "Total UK real compensation", "value_bp": 156.362481711, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "total_uk_real_compensation_bp" }, { "quantity": "UK inflation compensation", "value_bp": 91.9769137261, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": null, "source_file": "results\\five_component_historical\\20260917T153855427269Z\\uk_context_daily.csv", "column": "uk_inflation_premium_bp" }, { "quantity": "macro_three_market: global_real_premium_bp", "value_bp": 188.704816464, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": "macro_three_market", "source_file": "results\\global_expansion\\20260917T161524487851Z\\endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "global_real_premium_bp" }, { "quantity": "macro_three_market: local_real_premium_bp", "value_bp": -32.3423347526, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": "macro_three_market", "source_file": "results\\global_expansion\\20260917T161524487851Z\\endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "local_real_premium_bp" }, { "quantity": "survey_three_market: global_real_premium_bp", "value_bp": 193.387491224, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": "survey_three_market", "source_file": "results\\global_expansion\\20260917T161524487851Z\\endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "global_real_premium_bp" }, { "quantity": "survey_three_market: local_real_premium_bp", "value_bp": -37.0250095127, "absolute_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "date": "2026-07-31", "scenario": "survey_three_market", "source_file": "results\\global_expansion\\20260917T161524487851Z\\endpoint_sensitivities.csv", "column": "local_real_premium_bp" } ], "required_parameter_reporting": { "UK_policy_observation_SD_bp": 50.0, "UK_inflation_observation_SD_bp": 25.0, "UK_policy_fitted_q_bp2_per_month": 180.85619065995127, "UK_inflation_fitted_q_bp2_per_month": 0.0, "UK_HMT_rounds": 84, "state_timing": "filtered with full-sample fitted q", "foreign_primary_weights": "fixed equal currency weights", "UK_primary_loading": 1.0 } }, { "tier": "C_reported_findings_and_method_extensions", "status_rule": "No pass/fail acceptance range. Recompute the specified estimand and report agreement, disagreement and attributable choices. Reversing a published sign under a documented improved method is a research result.", "same_method_targets": { "comparison_start": "2019-12-30", "comparison_end": "2026-07-31", "component_changes_bp": { "nominal_bp": 453.88415555499995, "expected_real_bp": 125.3867202138, "expected_inflation_bp": 0.4760378009999897, "global_real_premium_bp": 282.6333181813, "local_real_premium_bp": 12.766023160099998, "uk_inflation_premium_bp": 32.62205619939999 }, "numeric_tolerance_bp": 0.01, "quarter_ranges": [ { "menu": "HMT_beliefs_only", "window": "pre2016_to_2017_19", "n_specifications": 4, "minimum_change_bp": 36.7762553136, "maximum_change_bp": 47.484423601, "direction": "up", "closest_to_zero_bp": 36.7762553136, "minimum_after_25bp_gap_stress": 11.7762553136, "maximum_after_25bp_gap_stress": 72.484423601, "direction_survives_25bp_gap_stress": true }, { "menu": "HMT_beliefs_only", "window": "prepandemic_to_2021", "n_specifications": 4, "minimum_change_bp": 63.60081967, "maximum_change_bp": 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