About
About this research
Research directed by Russ Oxley, with the methods and evidence open to independent scrutiny.
About Russ Oxley
Russ Oxley writes the Modern Tontines Substack and works part-time as a UK pensions consultant. His training and career are in macro fund management.
Modern Tontines on Substack · Avrox Asset · More about Russ
Contact: russ.oxley@avroxasset.com.
How this was made
The research was produced with frontier AI models under Russ Oxley’s direction. AI-assisted work covered public-source acquisition, data construction, coding, estimation, charting and internal checks. Numerical estimates come from the recorded calculations and frozen outputs; estimates have not been edited by hand. This publication pass adds documented descriptive audits and rerenders the charts without refitting the research model.
Separate AI agents reviewed methods and checked implementation within the same shared workflow. These were internal checks, not external human peer review or clean-room replication. Exact historical model versions and agent execution identifiers were not preserved in the reviewed artifacts, so they are not claimed here. The working notes state what was checked and what access the reviewers had.
Why publish the specification?
The aim is to make the research checkable by anyone with suitable data, statistical tools and a capable AI model. The replication page supplies the sources, numerical inputs, conventions and target calculations. Independent implementations and better-data comparisons can expose errors or improve the macro account.
This site presents the research and its conditional findings. Russ’s own interpretation will be published separately on Modern Tontines. It is not a Bank of England publication.
This checkpoint
The research checkpoint is 17 September 2026, with market observations through 31 July 2026 and complete-quarter comparisons through June. The site was published on 18 September 2026. Separate fixed-member histories reach August 2005 with the US/Australia benchmark and March 2012 with the three-market benchmark.
Reuse
Original text, charts and research outputs: CC BY 4.0. Third-party inputs remain subject to their publishers’ terms.