Data and supporting files

Download the numerical replication pack or open individual files below. Read the replication guide first.

Publication inventory and SHA-256 hashes. Large original result CSVs are supplied in lossless ZIP files. Numerical input packs preserve the names recorded in their own manifests.

Original text, charts and research outputs: CC BY 4.0. Third-party inputs remain subject to their publishers’ terms.

Replication: start here

The sources, full specification, numerical inputs and checks needed for an independent implementation.

• LICENSE.txt0.8 KB
• frozen_inputs_manifest.json23.8 KB
• au_macro_observations.csv111.1 KB
• au_real_forwards.csv2.10 MB
• au_survey_observations.csv50.2 KB
• cpih_equivalent_frozen_daily.csv3.35 MB
• de_real_forwards.csv2.38 MB
• ecb_survey_observations.csv44.9 KB
• hlw_us_ea_observations.csv486.4 KB
• market_forwards_and_cpih.csv608.4 KB
• mps_conditional_observations.csv104.9 KB
• mps_native_bins.csv184.3 KB
• n_uk_bp_observations.csv61.0 KB
• n_us_bp_observations.csv51.5 KB
• pi_uk_bp_observations.csv61.0 KB
• pi_us_bp_observations.csv26.1 KB
• pack_manifest.json7.5 KB
• sources.json217.7 KB
• sources.md8.4 KB
• specification.json118.6 KB
• specification.md23.8 KB
• au_dated_security_membership.csv2.58 MB
• au_security_terms.csv1.4 KB
• de_dated_security_membership.csv1.73 MB
• de_security_terms.csv0.9 KB
• endpoint_real_cashflows.csv11.1 KB
• foreign_survey_fit_diagnostics.json2.9 KB
• global_coverage.csv0.3 KB
• global_scenarios_expanded.json38.3 KB
• global_scenarios_original.json15.4 KB
• historical_fit_diagnostics.json48.5 KB
• inflation_fit_diagnostics.json1.9 KB
• inflation_scenarios_original.json1.1 KB
• inflation_trend_comparisons.csv19.7 KB
• macro_US_AU_reference_monthly.csv63.5 KB
• macro_three_market_reference_monthly.csv43.4 KB
• survey_three_market_reference_monthly.csv8.3 KB
• uk_scenario_menu.csv0.8 KB
• audit_manifest.json5.0 KB
• australian_gap_boundary_quotes.csv3.5 KB
• compounding_examples.csv0.3 KB
• hmt_expected_inflation_since_2019.csv0.3 KB
• hmt_mps_matched_overlap.csv30.0 KB
• hmt_mps_overlap_summary.csv0.7 KB
• interpolation_endpoint_comparison.csv0.3 KB
• long_history_monthly_gap_audit.csv9.9 KB
• replication_targets.json19.6 KB
• review_provenance.json2.9 KB

Inflation checkpoint

Final expectation alternatives, trends, scenario definitions and evidence.

• coverage.csv5.0 KB
• fit_diagnostics.json1.9 KB
• five_factor_sensitivities_daily.csv (CSV in ZIP)7.56 MB
• inflation_endpoint_sensitivities.csv4.9 KB
• inflation_expectation_paths.csv1.35 MB
• inflation_trend_comparisons.csv19.7 KB
• inflation_trend_robustness.csv2.7 KB
• macro_US_AU_reference_monthly.csv63.5 KB
• macro_three_market_reference_daily.csv775.9 KB
• macro_three_market_reference_monthly.csv43.4 KB
• scenario_definitions.json1.1 KB
• uk_inflation_sensitivities_quarterly.csv285.5 KB
• claims_ledger.csv4.1 KB
• exact_horizon_observations.csv104.9 KB

Global benchmark

Fixed-country comparison outputs, curve checks and sensitivities.

• all_scenarios_daily.csv (CSV in ZIP)2.88 MB
• claims_ledger.csv2.3 KB
• coverage_summary.csv0.3 KB
• endpoint_sensitivities.csv8.5 KB
• macro_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv39.3 KB
• macro_three_market_monthly.csv31.9 KB
• survey_membership_comparison.csv137.1 KB
• survey_three_market_foreign_components_monthly.csv7.5 KB
• survey_three_market_monthly.csv6.1 KB

Earlier model and figure provenance

Earlier US-proxy comparisons and the transformations used to draw the published charts.

• manifest.json20.7 KB
• validation.json2.8 KB
• fit_diagnostics.json48.5 KB
• five_components_monthly.csv22.4 KB
• input_pi_uk_bp.csv70.0 KB
• uk_context_monthly.csv99.0 KB